Wednesday, September 28, 2022

'General' Putin exposes Petersburg flank

Though the "special military operation" has escalated into a conflict that can easily spill over onto Russian soil, there are few soldiers left to guard the northwest frontier against any incursions from European nations or NATO forces, according to reports.

Russian media, which are generally deferential toward Dictator Vladimir Putin, have been careful to avoid informing the Russian public that their leader had escalated the war while leaving a critical flank dangerously exposed, though Russian leaders have repeatedly warned of threats by NATO forces, some of which have deployed toward the northeast areas of the European Union.

Of 80,000 soldiers defending the vital St. Petersburg region, 80 percent -- or 74,000 -- have been redeployed to the "dirty war" in Ukraine, Pentagon and European defense sources are quoted as saying. Nearly all their armaments have gone with them. Yet, NATO concedes that in "response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Allies have sent additional ships, planes and troops to NATO territory in eastern Europe, further reinforcing the Alliance’s deterrence and defense posture."

See Foreign Policy report
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/09/28/russia-ukraine-war-nato-eastern-flank-military-kaliningrad-baltic-finland/

Though the region near the Finnish border is still guarded by air defenses, some missile batteries have been removed to Ukraine, according to another report. Thus far, Russia's Baltic Sea naval operations are still able to provide some support in the event of a land incursion. But, given the shocking sinking of the warship Moskva in the Black Sea, there are questions as to how secure the navy really is.

The Foreign Policy report says,
A significant number of the Russian forces pulled away from the region are in Russia’s 6th Army, which until recently had been responsible for fighting in the Kremlin-occupied Kharkiv Oblast that has been overrun by a lightning Ukrainian counteroffensive in the last month. The 6th Army is typically tasked with defending Russia’s border along with the Baltic States and Finland.
NATO forces in the Baltic and Eastern European countries have been beefed up in response to Russian "aggression," the organization says.
✓ NATO has increased its military presence in the eastern part of the Alliance as a direct result of Russia’s behavior, which reflects a pattern of aggressive actions against its neighbours and the wider transatlantic community. Russia is the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area.

✓ At the 2016 NATO Summit in Warsaw, in response to the increased instability and insecurity along NATO’s periphery, Allied Heads of State and Government agreed to establish NATO’s forward presence in the northeast and southeast of the Alliance. This forward presence was first deployed in 2017, with the creation of four multinational battalion-size battlegroups in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, led by the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany and the United States respectively. In the southeast, a tailored presence on land, at sea and in the air contributed to increased Allied activity in the region, situational awareness, interoperability and responsiveness.

✓ Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Allies reinforced the existing battlegroups and agreed to establish four more multinational battlegroups in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia. This has brought the total number of multinational battlegroups to eight, effectively doubled the number of troops on the ground and extended NATO’s forward presence along the Alliance’s eastern flank – from the Baltic Sea in the north to the Black Sea in the south.

✓ Allies are committed to deploying robust and combat-ready forces on the Alliance’s eastern flank. The eight battlegroups demonstrate the strength of the transatlantic bond and the Alliance’s solidarity, determination and ability to respond to any aggression.

✓ At the 2022 NATO Summit in Madrid, Allies agreed to enhance the multinational battlegroups from battalions up to brigade size, where and when required.

✓ Many activities undertaken by Allies nationally also contribute to increased Allied activity in the eastern part of the Alliance.

✓ In response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Allies have sent additional ships, planes and troops to NATO territory in eastern Europe, further reinforcing the Alliance’s deterrence and defence posture.

Foreign Policy reporters on this story are Robbie Gramer, diplomacy and national security reporter, and Jack Detsch, Pentagon and national security reporter.

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