The Russian command in Ukraine now faces a very difficult military situation.
It must resist a Ukrainian move onto the southeast bank of the Dnipro River or face dire consequences, but at the same time it wishes evidently to divert units now entrenched in trans-Dnipro Kherson Oblast to the Donetsk region in the northeast, so as to reinforce counterattacks going on there. Without reinforcement by seasoned troops, the Donetsk campaign is liable to fail -- as Ukrainian resistance has proved very vigorous and as the Wagner mercenaries have found to their dismay.
Yet, if the Dnipro defensive force is thinned, it faces probable flanking and encirclement maneuvers by the Ukrainians, who can surely cross the Dnipro at narrow stretches using pontoon bridges or recaptured, resurfaced bridges. By punching a hole through the Russian Dnipro defense line, Ukraine units could, potentially, avoid further costly frontal assaults and either roll up the Russians with upriver and downriver pushes against newly exposed flanks or could push further inland and move upriver and downriver behind the fortifications, thus positioning themselves to overwhelm the Russians' weakly protected rear.
The Russians don't appear to have sufficient manpower for layered, in-depth defense of trans-Dnipro Kherson Oblast. In fact, the various reports that they wish to move many Dnipro defense troops north tend to show that they have no viable reserve that could move about in the rear to stave off a Ukraine breakthrough. (In fact, Vladimir Putin's commanders grossly miscalculated the number of troops needed for occupation of Ukraine, where much of the populace is hostile. From the moment of invasion, there were never enough troops available for effective occupation and pacification of conquered regions.)
If the Russians had immediate access to the hundreds of thousands of "warm body" conscripts now being processed, one might think they could stave off defeat. But, who is to arm and feed all these men? Russian supply lines are a mess. So that fond hope of Putin and the militarists is unlikely to be fulfilled.
And to add insult to injury, the Ukrainians almost surely will re-dam the North Crimean Canal, which feeds Dnipro water to Crimea, thus making military life untenable for much of the Russian force based there and effectively laying waste to the whole Russian logistics effort there.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky was not speaking idly when he said Ukrainian forces would enter Crimea soon enough.
It must resist a Ukrainian move onto the southeast bank of the Dnipro River or face dire consequences, but at the same time it wishes evidently to divert units now entrenched in trans-Dnipro Kherson Oblast to the Donetsk region in the northeast, so as to reinforce counterattacks going on there. Without reinforcement by seasoned troops, the Donetsk campaign is liable to fail -- as Ukrainian resistance has proved very vigorous and as the Wagner mercenaries have found to their dismay.
Yet, if the Dnipro defensive force is thinned, it faces probable flanking and encirclement maneuvers by the Ukrainians, who can surely cross the Dnipro at narrow stretches using pontoon bridges or recaptured, resurfaced bridges. By punching a hole through the Russian Dnipro defense line, Ukraine units could, potentially, avoid further costly frontal assaults and either roll up the Russians with upriver and downriver pushes against newly exposed flanks or could push further inland and move upriver and downriver behind the fortifications, thus positioning themselves to overwhelm the Russians' weakly protected rear.
The Russians don't appear to have sufficient manpower for layered, in-depth defense of trans-Dnipro Kherson Oblast. In fact, the various reports that they wish to move many Dnipro defense troops north tend to show that they have no viable reserve that could move about in the rear to stave off a Ukraine breakthrough. (In fact, Vladimir Putin's commanders grossly miscalculated the number of troops needed for occupation of Ukraine, where much of the populace is hostile. From the moment of invasion, there were never enough troops available for effective occupation and pacification of conquered regions.)
If the Russians had immediate access to the hundreds of thousands of "warm body" conscripts now being processed, one might think they could stave off defeat. But, who is to arm and feed all these men? Russian supply lines are a mess. So that fond hope of Putin and the militarists is unlikely to be fulfilled.
And to add insult to injury, the Ukrainians almost surely will re-dam the North Crimean Canal, which feeds Dnipro water to Crimea, thus making military life untenable for much of the Russian force based there and effectively laying waste to the whole Russian logistics effort there.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky was not speaking idly when he said Ukrainian forces would enter Crimea soon enough.
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