Russia's rain of missile terror is a political move meant to placate Russian hawks, who had publicly berated him and urged a tough response to the Crimean bridge bombing.
But, though the gesture is painful for the civilian populaces targeted, the missile attacks are unlikely to prevent Ukrainian encirclement and destruction of major military units. The fact that Dictator Vladimir Putin has now named an air force general to command Russian forces in Ukraine implies that he may well have given up on the army's ability to win and now foresees a heavy air war that is to be conducted with missiles.
Such tactics make it imperative for Ukrainians to find ways to neutralize Russian missile launch sites, which means that allies will be under pressure to provide counter-weapons that can reach fairly deep into Russian territory. So far, Ukraine has not dropped missiles onto Russian cities and towns, but that eventuality looms larger as Putin refuses to acknowledge the gravity of Russia's military situation.
Russia's client, Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko, clearly prompted by the Kremlin, said he was positioning Belarusian troops near the Ukraine border to team up with Russian troops. But dissent and skepticism in Belarus about joining the war are likely to continue to restrain his hand. He fears a revolution that could see him toppled from power.
The decision to respond to the Kerch bridge blast with a savage burst of missile fire may help Putin retain power for now, as his ultra-nationalist base's criticisms will be temporarily silenced. But, one more military disaster is likely to release the genie of harsh criticism again and such a disaster seems to be very likely as Ukrainian forces continue to divide and encircle major Russian units.
Militarily, the Russians are said to be hoping they can stave off significant Ukrainian progress until the winter months make combat difficult in the eastern regions. Yet, Ukraine, if supplied with proper cold-weather equipment, may be able to continue the fight during that time. Still, it would be better for all if Putin would step aside now so that Russia can get the best peace possible in light of the bad military situation.
By not stepping aside, Putin motivates Ukraine to retake Crimea and utterly abolish Russian interests on the peninsula. A settlement however might yield a Crimea under a UN mandate that guarantees both Ukrainian and Russian interests.
But, though the gesture is painful for the civilian populaces targeted, the missile attacks are unlikely to prevent Ukrainian encirclement and destruction of major military units. The fact that Dictator Vladimir Putin has now named an air force general to command Russian forces in Ukraine implies that he may well have given up on the army's ability to win and now foresees a heavy air war that is to be conducted with missiles.
Such tactics make it imperative for Ukrainians to find ways to neutralize Russian missile launch sites, which means that allies will be under pressure to provide counter-weapons that can reach fairly deep into Russian territory. So far, Ukraine has not dropped missiles onto Russian cities and towns, but that eventuality looms larger as Putin refuses to acknowledge the gravity of Russia's military situation.
The decision to respond to the Kerch bridge blast with a savage burst of missile fire may help Putin retain power for now, as his ultra-nationalist base's criticisms will be temporarily silenced. But, one more military disaster is likely to release the genie of harsh criticism again and such a disaster seems to be very likely as Ukrainian forces continue to divide and encircle major Russian units.
Militarily, the Russians are said to be hoping they can stave off significant Ukrainian progress until the winter months make combat difficult in the eastern regions. Yet, Ukraine, if supplied with proper cold-weather equipment, may be able to continue the fight during that time. Still, it would be better for all if Putin would step aside now so that Russia can get the best peace possible in light of the bad military situation.
By not stepping aside, Putin motivates Ukraine to retake Crimea and utterly abolish Russian interests on the peninsula. A settlement however might yield a Crimea under a UN mandate that guarantees both Ukrainian and Russian interests.
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