Russia's desperate moves to avoid a humiliating battlefield rout in Ukraine are unlikely to succeed, despite the sudden escalation of the war.
As the Ukraine counteroffensive threatens to push Russia out of eastern Ukraine's Donbas region, the Kremlin rushed through measures meant to ward off disaster:
✓ Russian stooges in occuppied provinces announced plebescites for this weekend that seek to incorporate these areas into Russia. Vladimir Putin quickly backed the plebiscites.
✓ Some 300,000 persons are being called up -- beginning today -- to serve as replacements for the battered and frightened Russian forces in eastern Ukraine. Putin said these persons, who have military experience, would first be retrained for the exigencies of the Ukraine war, though that pledge cannot hold if the Ukrainians strike too soon.
✓ A new measure advanced in the Russian legislature that imposes tough penalties on those who somehow obstruct mobilization, and in order to discourage demoralized soldiers from deserting, leaving their combat posts or otherwise defying orders.
✓ The Kremlin warned that, if the West continued supplying the Ukrainians with effective rocket and missile systems, nuclear war could result. The Kremlin tried to turn the tables on the West, arguing that it is the West that is menacing Russia with nuclear weaponry.
✓ Putin appealed for national unity behind his war effort by asserting that the U.S.-led West is trying to break up Russia into a collection of feuding regions, as he said happened to the old Soviet Union when the republics broke away.
✓ The Kremlin, by rebranding eastern Ukraine as Russian territory, is warning the West that if the Western-backed Ukrainians retake their lands, the Russians would see that as an invasion of Russia and would then be ready to use nuclear weapons.
These Russian moves show that Putin will stop at nothing to avoid humiliation. As Arme Petimezas, a senior analyst at AFS group, told the Reuters news agency: “It is not yet a total war for Russia because there is no full mobilization. But I think Putin is underestimated. He has escalated every time. For him, it is life and death. I don’t see why his next move will be de-escalation unless he wins.”
But, a basic reason the Putin gamble is unlikely to succeed is that the United States and other NATO nations are firm that they will not recognize the sudden incorporation of the contested territory into Russia. That means there will be no embargo on weapons that are helping Ukraine drive out the Russians. To make matters worse for Putin, his navy has lost control of the Black Sea and his warships have been forced to withdraw from Crimea to safety up the Azov Sea.
Thus, despite his hasty mobilization order, Putin has few options other than use of nuclear weapons, perhaps sent by hypersonic missiles that are virtually impossible to intercept other than -- possibly -- by lasers.
The hawks and hotheads in Russia may be prepared to promote nuclear confrontation, but the question becomes, will rational people accept such a situation? The educated segment of the populace, such as scientists and mathematicians, are already appalled by the war. Will Putin's KGB thuggery be sufficient to compel the people to accept such a dangerous escalation -- especially if far more Russians begin arriving home in body bags or badly disabled?
Russia’s isolation in the international community is profound. Soon after Putin’s speech on mobilization was broadcast, China issued a plea for “ceasefire through dialog.”
On Monday, shortly before the sudden Russian moves, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Russia must yield its conquered land. Erdogan, who has officially remained on good terms with Putin, made his remarks in a PBS interview.
Asked whether Moscow could be permitted to keep territory gained since the conflict began in February, Erdogan said, “No, and undoubtedly no.”
“If a peace is going to be established in Ukraine, of course, the returning of the land that was invaded will become really important. This is what is expected. This is what is wanted,” he said.
“The lands which were invaded will be returned to Ukraine,” the Turkish leader declared.
Questioned about Crimea, which is now besieged and which Russia may lose, Erdogan stressed that he had been asking his “dear friend Putin” to return Crimea to its “rightful owners” but acknowledged this had “unfortunately” not happened.
Putin orders 'partial mobilization'
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/21/partial-mobilisation
As the Ukraine counteroffensive threatens to push Russia out of eastern Ukraine's Donbas region, the Kremlin rushed through measures meant to ward off disaster:
✓ Russian stooges in occuppied provinces announced plebescites for this weekend that seek to incorporate these areas into Russia. Vladimir Putin quickly backed the plebiscites.
✓ Some 300,000 persons are being called up -- beginning today -- to serve as replacements for the battered and frightened Russian forces in eastern Ukraine. Putin said these persons, who have military experience, would first be retrained for the exigencies of the Ukraine war, though that pledge cannot hold if the Ukrainians strike too soon.
✓ A new measure advanced in the Russian legislature that imposes tough penalties on those who somehow obstruct mobilization, and in order to discourage demoralized soldiers from deserting, leaving their combat posts or otherwise defying orders.
✓ The Kremlin warned that, if the West continued supplying the Ukrainians with effective rocket and missile systems, nuclear war could result. The Kremlin tried to turn the tables on the West, arguing that it is the West that is menacing Russia with nuclear weaponry.
✓ Putin appealed for national unity behind his war effort by asserting that the U.S.-led West is trying to break up Russia into a collection of feuding regions, as he said happened to the old Soviet Union when the republics broke away.
✓ The Kremlin, by rebranding eastern Ukraine as Russian territory, is warning the West that if the Western-backed Ukrainians retake their lands, the Russians would see that as an invasion of Russia and would then be ready to use nuclear weapons.
These Russian moves show that Putin will stop at nothing to avoid humiliation. As Arme Petimezas, a senior analyst at AFS group, told the Reuters news agency: “It is not yet a total war for Russia because there is no full mobilization. But I think Putin is underestimated. He has escalated every time. For him, it is life and death. I don’t see why his next move will be de-escalation unless he wins.”
But, a basic reason the Putin gamble is unlikely to succeed is that the United States and other NATO nations are firm that they will not recognize the sudden incorporation of the contested territory into Russia. That means there will be no embargo on weapons that are helping Ukraine drive out the Russians. To make matters worse for Putin, his navy has lost control of the Black Sea and his warships have been forced to withdraw from Crimea to safety up the Azov Sea.
Thus, despite his hasty mobilization order, Putin has few options other than use of nuclear weapons, perhaps sent by hypersonic missiles that are virtually impossible to intercept other than -- possibly -- by lasers.
The hawks and hotheads in Russia may be prepared to promote nuclear confrontation, but the question becomes, will rational people accept such a situation? The educated segment of the populace, such as scientists and mathematicians, are already appalled by the war. Will Putin's KGB thuggery be sufficient to compel the people to accept such a dangerous escalation -- especially if far more Russians begin arriving home in body bags or badly disabled?
Russia’s isolation in the international community is profound. Soon after Putin’s speech on mobilization was broadcast, China issued a plea for “ceasefire through dialog.”
On Monday, shortly before the sudden Russian moves, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Russia must yield its conquered land. Erdogan, who has officially remained on good terms with Putin, made his remarks in a PBS interview.
Asked whether Moscow could be permitted to keep territory gained since the conflict began in February, Erdogan said, “No, and undoubtedly no.”
“If a peace is going to be established in Ukraine, of course, the returning of the land that was invaded will become really important. This is what is expected. This is what is wanted,” he said.
“The lands which were invaded will be returned to Ukraine,” the Turkish leader declared.
Questioned about Crimea, which is now besieged and which Russia may lose, Erdogan stressed that he had been asking his “dear friend Putin” to return Crimea to its “rightful owners” but acknowledged this had “unfortunately” not happened.
Putin orders 'partial mobilization'
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/21/partial-mobilisation
Transcript of Erdogan interview
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/turkey-president-erdogan-on-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-and-the-future-of-nato
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