Press accounts, citing various scientific studies, show that the United States has reached "herd immunity" against covid.
But health bureaucrats and media seem to be hoping that the data-free Omicron variant can be used to stir up covid hysteria once more.
Herd immunity does not mean zero spread of a disease like covid, explained Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, a Stanford University expert in health care policy. Herd immunity means that an infected person infects on average one or fewer other persons. Some viruses, such as ebola, would require stern measures. But others, such as flu viruses and the coronaviruses, which yield colds, flu and covid, are better handled through milder tactics, he argued.
NBC News: America's falling case rate (late October)
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/all/america-s-falling-covid-case-rate-3-charts-n1282675
Covid cases falling, but seasonal rise is expected
https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-10-25/covid-cases-falling-but-trouble-signs-arise-as-winter-looms
Though U.S. News sees "trouble" from winter covid, such a rise is consistent with the definition of herd immunity. Other coronaviruses, which trigger colds, and flu viruses also follow a cyclic seasonal pattern.
At the herd immunity rate of infection, coronaviruses tend to be a manageable problem, with "focused protection" being the best option, according to the Great Barrington Declaration. Fauci scorned this document, saying it was irresponsible to let the covid virus "rip" through the population. A recent study published in Nature showed that the covid virus had early on "ripped" through the U.S. populace, with most people not even noticing.
That study shows that the case rate versus the infection rate is below 1% -- that very few infections result in illness requiring treatment.
The National Institutes of Health claimed recently that this discovery showed how important the vaccination programs have been. Yet, the agency did not focus on the fact that one-third of the population had been naturally vaccinated within a few months. Had lockdowns and other interventions not occurred, most of the rest of the populace would have been harmlessly naturally vaccinated.
The Nature article seems to dovetail with the following:
Covid cases fall in 5 least vaxxed states
https://www.newsweek.com/covid-cases-are-falling-five-least-vaccinated-states-1655358
That makes sense. The rapid dissemination of covid through the healthy population has produced natural immunity. That is, herd immunity has been achieved in those states. For the country as a whole, the drop in covid means herd immunity -- though it appears that mass inoculations may have been counterproductive, which tends to support Bhattacharya's insistence that only the immune-weak should have been vaccinated.
Bhattacharya, a health care expert who writes on epidemiology, cites an Italian study that shows that the natural vaccine effect shields people from re-infection for another year in 99.7% of infections. In the 0.3% of people who are re-infected, the infection is nearly always milder, he said.
The Stanford professor is one of the scientist signers of the Great Barrington Declaration, which urged a more focused approach to covid abatement measures. The scientists declared, "As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity."
That is, herd immunity has been achieved against the original Alpha Variant and the later Delta Variant. Now the media are foreseeing trouble from the Omicron Variant -- as if to escape the herd immunity blockade -- though the World Health Organization has very skimpy data on Omicron infections, cases, hospitalizations or deaths. That is, a "doom and gloom" forecast is being whipped up based on no data.
A more rational approach, then and now, is "focused intervention," meaning do all that is possible to urge the immune-weakened to be vaccinated -- if the vaccine is sufficiently effective -- and to strongly suggest that they stay clear of crowds. Of course, such advice is a good idea in general, as it curbs the risk of dying from other contagious viruses that likewise have little impact on the healthy.
Joe Biden's declaration of more covid restrictions runs counter to the available data. If he has access to secret data, he should share that information with America, which must endure his dictatorial rules.
But health bureaucrats and media seem to be hoping that the data-free Omicron variant can be used to stir up covid hysteria once more.
Herd immunity does not mean zero spread of a disease like covid, explained Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, a Stanford University expert in health care policy. Herd immunity means that an infected person infects on average one or fewer other persons. Some viruses, such as ebola, would require stern measures. But others, such as flu viruses and the coronaviruses, which yield colds, flu and covid, are better handled through milder tactics, he argued.
NBC News: America's falling case rate (late October)
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/all/america-s-falling-covid-case-rate-3-charts-n1282675
Covid cases falling, but seasonal rise is expected
https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-10-25/covid-cases-falling-but-trouble-signs-arise-as-winter-looms
Though U.S. News sees "trouble" from winter covid, such a rise is consistent with the definition of herd immunity. Other coronaviruses, which trigger colds, and flu viruses also follow a cyclic seasonal pattern.
At the herd immunity rate of infection, coronaviruses tend to be a manageable problem, with "focused protection" being the best option, according to the Great Barrington Declaration. Fauci scorned this document, saying it was irresponsible to let the covid virus "rip" through the population. A recent study published in Nature showed that the covid virus had early on "ripped" through the U.S. populace, with most people not even noticing.
That study shows that the case rate versus the infection rate is below 1% -- that very few infections result in illness requiring treatment.
The National Institutes of Health claimed recently that this discovery showed how important the vaccination programs have been. Yet, the agency did not focus on the fact that one-third of the population had been naturally vaccinated within a few months. Had lockdowns and other interventions not occurred, most of the rest of the populace would have been harmlessly naturally vaccinated.
The Nature article seems to dovetail with the following:
Covid cases fall in 5 least vaxxed states
https://www.newsweek.com/covid-cases-are-falling-five-least-vaccinated-states-1655358
That makes sense. The rapid dissemination of covid through the healthy population has produced natural immunity. That is, herd immunity has been achieved in those states. For the country as a whole, the drop in covid means herd immunity -- though it appears that mass inoculations may have been counterproductive, which tends to support Bhattacharya's insistence that only the immune-weak should have been vaccinated.
Bhattacharya, a health care expert who writes on epidemiology, cites an Italian study that shows that the natural vaccine effect shields people from re-infection for another year in 99.7% of infections. In the 0.3% of people who are re-infected, the infection is nearly always milder, he said.
The Stanford professor is one of the scientist signers of the Great Barrington Declaration, which urged a more focused approach to covid abatement measures. The scientists declared, "As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity."
That is, herd immunity has been achieved against the original Alpha Variant and the later Delta Variant. Now the media are foreseeing trouble from the Omicron Variant -- as if to escape the herd immunity blockade -- though the World Health Organization has very skimpy data on Omicron infections, cases, hospitalizations or deaths. That is, a "doom and gloom" forecast is being whipped up based on no data.
A more rational approach, then and now, is "focused intervention," meaning do all that is possible to urge the immune-weakened to be vaccinated -- if the vaccine is sufficiently effective -- and to strongly suggest that they stay clear of crowds. Of course, such advice is a good idea in general, as it curbs the risk of dying from other contagious viruses that likewise have little impact on the healthy.
Joe Biden's declaration of more covid restrictions runs counter to the available data. If he has access to secret data, he should share that information with America, which must endure his dictatorial rules.
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